More than 1.2 million immigrants exited the US labor force between January and July this year, according to preliminary Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center. The decline includes both legal residents and undocumented workers.
Immigrants make up nearly one-fifth of the American workforce. Pew researcher Stephanie Kramer said they represent 45% of workers in farming, fishing and forestry, 30% in construction, and 24% in service industries. She cautioned that while the reasons behind the decline are unclear, the downward trend is real. “It’s unclear how much of the decline we’ve seen since January is due to voluntary departures to pursue other opportunities or avoid deportation, removals, underreporting or other technical issues,” she said. “However, we don’t believe that the preliminary numbers indicating net-negative migration are so far off that the decline isn’t real.”
The overall immigrant population is seeing its first fall after the number of undocumented people reached 14 million in 2023. Immigration enforcement under Donald Trump has coincided with fewer illegal border crossings, though most people detained by federal agencies have no criminal convictions.
The labor market impact is visible in slower job creation. Pia Orrenius, labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said, “The influx across the border from what we can tell is essentially stopped, and that’s where we were getting millions and millions of migrants over the last four years. That has had a huge impact on the ability to create jobs.”
Construction has seen notable losses. Data from the Associated General Contractors of America shows employment declines in about half of US metropolitan areas. The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario region in California recorded the largest fall of 7,200 jobs, while Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale lost 6,200. “Construction employment has stalled or retreated in many areas for a variety of reasons,” AP quoted Ken Simonson, the group’s chief economist, as saying. “But contractors report they would hire more people if only they could find more qualified and willing workers and tougher immigration enforcement wasn’t disrupting labor supplies.”
Other industries may also face strain. Kramer highlighted that immigrants account for about 43% of home health aides. Arnulfo De La Cruz, president of SEIU 2015 in California, said, “What’s going to happen when millions of Americans can no longer find a home care provider? What happens when immigrants aren’t in the field to pick our crops? Who’s going to staff our hospitals and nursing homes?”
with inputs from AP
Immigrants make up nearly one-fifth of the American workforce. Pew researcher Stephanie Kramer said they represent 45% of workers in farming, fishing and forestry, 30% in construction, and 24% in service industries. She cautioned that while the reasons behind the decline are unclear, the downward trend is real. “It’s unclear how much of the decline we’ve seen since January is due to voluntary departures to pursue other opportunities or avoid deportation, removals, underreporting or other technical issues,” she said. “However, we don’t believe that the preliminary numbers indicating net-negative migration are so far off that the decline isn’t real.”
The overall immigrant population is seeing its first fall after the number of undocumented people reached 14 million in 2023. Immigration enforcement under Donald Trump has coincided with fewer illegal border crossings, though most people detained by federal agencies have no criminal convictions.
The labor market impact is visible in slower job creation. Pia Orrenius, labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said, “The influx across the border from what we can tell is essentially stopped, and that’s where we were getting millions and millions of migrants over the last four years. That has had a huge impact on the ability to create jobs.”
Construction has seen notable losses. Data from the Associated General Contractors of America shows employment declines in about half of US metropolitan areas. The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario region in California recorded the largest fall of 7,200 jobs, while Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale lost 6,200. “Construction employment has stalled or retreated in many areas for a variety of reasons,” AP quoted Ken Simonson, the group’s chief economist, as saying. “But contractors report they would hire more people if only they could find more qualified and willing workers and tougher immigration enforcement wasn’t disrupting labor supplies.”
Other industries may also face strain. Kramer highlighted that immigrants account for about 43% of home health aides. Arnulfo De La Cruz, president of SEIU 2015 in California, said, “What’s going to happen when millions of Americans can no longer find a home care provider? What happens when immigrants aren’t in the field to pick our crops? Who’s going to staff our hospitals and nursing homes?”
with inputs from AP
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