It's raining disaster: Why Himalayan states face rising monsoon tragedies

Dharali, with its mushrooming hotels, roadside eateries and scenic apple orchards, is a popular stopover for pilgrims travelling to Gangotri, the source of the Ganga, in Uttarakhand. One afternoon last month, a torrent of muddy water came crashing down the calm, slender Kheerganga river, swallowing everything on its banks. The devastating mudslide in that small town claimed at least two lives, with 67 reported missing.

Just days later, a cloudburst struck Chositi, a remote village in Kishtwar district in Jammu and Kashmir. It triggered a flash flood that washed away at least 67 lives. Standing amid the devastation, Union minister and local MP Jitendra Singh said it was “scary” to even estimate how many might have got swept away in those “15 deadly seconds”.

The Himalayan states—Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh —and the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir have been battered by monsoon calamities this year. The annual ordeal is exacerbated by rampant infrastructure expansion, unchecked urban growth and the glaring absence of robust early-warning systems.

“Cloudburst is an extreme weather event where a rainfall of 10 cm takes place in 1 hour [in a small geographical region of about 2030 sq km],” says Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, India Meteorological Department (IMD). “We can forecast heavy or extremely heavy rainfall, but we can’t yet predict a cloudburst.”

He explains that forecasting for a small area — say, a hill town — can never match the accuracy of predictions for a larger region. “We are, however, working to improve our forecasting capabilities by installing more radars across the Himalayan states. In mountainous terrain, rainfall varies sharply — there may be heavy showers on one side of a peak while the other side remains dry,” he adds.

In India, 27 of 36 states and Union territories are disaster-prone. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), 12% of the country’s land is vulnerable to floods and river erosion, 15% to landslides and as much as 68% cultivable land is susceptible to drought. The Union Home Ministry told the Lok Sabha in February that in the first 10 months of FY2024-25 (up to January 27, 2025) itself, hydro-meteorological disasters claimed 2,936 lives, with Himachal Pradesh recording the highest toll at 408 fatalities. The total number of deaths and estimated loss of devastation in the current fiscal year are not readily available.

“The frequency of natural disasters like landslides and flash floods will only rise in the years ahead, as we continue to compromise ecological needs while fast-tracking infrastructure projects in the hills,” says RK Srivastava, professor of environmental science at Uttarakhand’s GB Pant University of Agriculture and Technology. “Take road construction. Contractors are keen to finish projects on schedule—and that’s understandable—but there is little oversight of how they dispose of debris. When natural water channels on hill slopes are clogged with waste, landslides and floods become inevitable.”

NEVER-ENDING ROAD
Despite the environmental risks, the government is pushing for the construction of all-weather roads, or the widening of existing ones, through the fragile Himalayan terrain. Consider the Char Dham project, costing Rs 12,595 crore, which aims to upgrade or develop 825 km of national highways linking Kedarnath, Badrinath, Yamunotri and Gangotri in Uttarakhand. According to the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH), 629 km has been completed.

Jaya Singh, a trustee of Dehradun-based Citizens for Green Doon, says the situation is alarming. She says that since the Char Dham project began a few years ago, the region has witnessed over 800 landslides. “What we oppose is the unscientific and hasty expansion of road projects in the fragile Himalayan belt—projects that involve deforestation, cutting of hilltops and dumping of mud into rivers. Simultaneous execution of multiple roadworks is making mountain slopes more vulnerable to devastation,” argues Singh, whose civil society group has petitioned against the widening of the Char Dham roads. She adds that the group is demanding the rollback of a 2021 Supreme Court order that permitted the widening of three Char Dham highways — Rishikesh–Mana, Rishikesh–Gangotri and Tanakpur– Pithoragarh—into 10 m, two-lane stretches with paved shoulders. The government has justified the move on strategic grounds, arguing that these corridors will be vital feeder roads to the China border.

Singh says that within the Bhagirathi EcoSensitive Zone (BESZ) in Uttarkashi, an 8 km stretch would demand the felling of nearly 3,000 trees, wiping out around 17 hectares of high-altitude Himalayan forests.

The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has faced multiple legal challenges over its road projects in hill states, be it for altering alignments or pushing through controversial expansions. For example, the Himachal Pradesh High Court last year issued a notice to the state government, questioning its inaction against those responsible for altering the alignment of the Kiratpur–Manali National Highway during widening work.

The vulnerabilities of such projects were starkly revealed in 2023 when Himachal Pradesh was battered by torrential monsoon rains, causing 163 landslides and 83 flash floods. The road sector suffered an estimated loss of Rs 1,632 crore, according to a report prepared by the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) for the state government. It attributed the destruction not only to natural causes such as intense rainfall and fragile geology, but also to human failings—like poor drainage systems and reckless dumping of construction debris. It said many existing highways, built without factoring in extreme weather events or the growing impact of climate change, need a comprehensive redesign.


DEVELOPMENT CAN’T STOP
Acknowledging the dangers of cloudbursts in hilly terrain, Snowber Jamil, deputy secretary in J&K’s Disaster Management Department, says development and risk mitigation must go hand in hand. “People living in remote hills also need development projects and better road connectivity,” she says, pointing to the widening of the Srinagar-Jammu highway that cuts through the Pir Panjal range, and the new railway line tunnelling across the same mountains. “But today, the Srinagar-Jammu journey takes only three to four hours.”

At the same time, she underscores the fragility of the region. “We live in an area that is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation must be built into the policy itself and embedded in the design of every infrastructure project.” Jamil adds that this year, for the first time, the Union territory has constituted a dedicated expert committee on landslides.

The pace of road building in the hills is unlikely to slow down. Under Phase IV of the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), launched last year, the government plans to provide road connectivity to 25,000 unconnected habitations, with a total outlay of Rs 70,125 crore. Of these, more than 250 are in the Northeast and other hill states and UTs — signalling that road construction in the Himalayas will only accelerate in the years ahead. Combined with unchecked growth of hotels and resorts near riverbanks, this relentless expansion, environmentalists argue, risks compounding the devastation unleashed during the monsoon.

A senior Uttarakhand official, who is not authorised to speak on disaster management, contends that new roads and surge in tourists are often unfairly blamed for the rise in natural calamities. “Was the 2013 Kedarnath cloudburst, which killed over 4,000 people, the result of road development?” he asks, pointing to the June 16-17 disaster triggered by the bursting of the Chorabari Lake. The deluge wiped out much of Kedarnath town, claiming 4,023 lives and causing damage to public infrastructure estimated at ?13,800 crore. Five districts — Pithoragarh, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Uttarkashi and Bageshwar — were affected by what came to be known as a once-in-a-century Himalayan tragedy.


WATCH THE SNOW, TOO
According to IMD’s Mohapatra, simple rainfall forecasts are inadequate for hill states. “Let’s not forget, July and August are also the hottest months in the Himalayas, when glaciers begin to melt. Snow monitoring is just as critical as rainfall prediction in anticipating calamities,” he adds.

The Central Water Commission (CWC), which monitors 902 glacial lakes between June and October, using remote sensing techniques, has issued guidelines for dam designers, engineers and hill-town planners. The advisory stresses the importance of integrating GLOF (glacial lake outburst flood) considerations into infrastructure planning and risk-reduction strategies. GLOF is a sudden, destructive flash flood caused by the rapid release of water from a glacial lake.

Climate change in the Himalayas — marked by a sharp rise in temperatures and increasingly erratic rainfall— affects in many ways. An October 2024 report by a Delhi-based consultancy, Climate Trends, reveals that between 2016 and 2023, Uttarakhand’s fruit cultivation area shrank by 54%, while yields fell by 44%, largely due to extreme weather and temperature fluctuations.

Debdatta Chakraborty, co-author of the report “The Changing Horticulture Landscape in Uttarakhand in a Warmer Climate”, says that the state’s average temperature surged by 1.5°C over the past decade. “Temperate fruits such as apples and peaches, which require prolonged chilling, have been the hardest hit,” she explains. “Farmers are increasingly turning to tropical crops like guava and dragon fruit as part of their adaptation strategy.”

While such changes call for long-term strategies, the immediate priority is to strengthen India’s disaster response system ahead of the monsoon’s annual fury. The first signs of a turbulent year, officials say, often come from IMD’s forecasts of above-average rainfall. “We activate emergency services from April onward,” says Dani Salu, secretary of disaster management in the Arunachal Pradesh government. “Ours is a young mountain state, crisscrossed by highways under construction. Landslides are a common occurrence during monsoon, and flash floods too strike frequently. We identify the most vulnerable stretches and prepare for every eventuality.”

Even as human activities — massive road construction, deforestation and rampant quarrying along hill rivers—have weakened an already fragile topography, experts caution that natural calamities can never be entirely tamed. Historical accounts recall devastating floods in the Alaknanda valley in 1857 and in 1868—long before the advent of pucca roads, bridges, or hydel dams in the region.

In the end, the prudent way forward is to remain calm, vigilant and prepared. The NDMA’s guidelines for floods and landslides advise every household to keep an emergency kit ready— complete with a battery-operated torch and radio, spare batteries, essential medicines, dry food, a knife and some cash. For those living below debris-covered slopes, the warning is sharper: move to safer ground at the first sign of danger— be it the rumble of falling rocks or the crack of trees giving way.