Thailand: Legendary Thaksin Shinawatra faces legal setback amid political decline

Nearly two decades after being ousted in a military coup, Thaksin Shinawatra — Thailand’s billionaire former prime minister — remains one of the country’s most divisive and influential political figures. His tumultuous career, marked by landslide electoral victories, criminal convictions, self-imposed exile, and a high-profile return, continues to stir both admiration and controversy.

This week, Thailand’s Supreme Court ordered Thaksin to serve a one-year prison term linked to previous corruption and abuse of power convictions. The decision follows scrutiny over whether officials mishandled his return to Thailand in 2023. Though initially sentenced to eight years, his punishment was significantly reduced, and he was released on parole in early 2024 after just six months.

Born in 1949 into a wealthy Chiang Mai family, Thaksin began his career in public service as a police colonel before venturing into business. He amassed a fortune through his telecom company Advanced Info Systems, which laid the foundation for his political journey.

He entered politics in the 1990s and founded the Thai Rak Thai Party in 1998. His populist policies — such as universal healthcare and village development funds — gained massive support among rural and lower-income voters. He became Thailand’s first elected prime minister to serve a full term and was re-elected in a landslide in 2005.

However, his sweeping popularity alarmed Thailand’s conservative elites, military, and judiciary, who saw him as a threat to traditional power structures, particularly the monarchy.

Thaksin’s second term was cut short by a 2006 military coup while he was abroad. Accused of corruption and abuse of power, he faced numerous legal cases, which he dismissed as politically motivated. He briefly returned in 2008 but fled again, beginning a long exile.

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Despite living overseas — including in Dubai and Montenegro — Thaksin remained an active force in Thai politics. Parties linked to him continued to win elections but were repeatedly unseated by court rulings or protests. His loyal supporters, the 'Red Shirts', frequently clashed with royalist 'Yellow Shirts', contributing to years of political unrest.

His sister Yingluck Shinawatra became Thailand’s first female prime minister in 2011, only to be removed in another military coup in 2014. She too fled the country to avoid prosecution.

In 2023, following the progressive Move Forward Party’s electoral victory, Thaksin returned to Thailand under what many considered a backroom deal with conservative elites. On the same day Pheu Thai — now led by his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra — formed a coalition government, he was taken into custody but quickly transferred to a hospital on health grounds.

Though sentenced to eight years, his term was reduced by royal pardon to one year. His extended hospital stay drew scepticism and was seen by critics as evidence of “special privilege”.

Now, the Supreme Court has ruled that the transfer to the hospital violated procedure and that his health condition was not severe enough to justify it. Since his release, Thaksin has maintained a prominent public role, travelling extensively and weighing in on political matters. But his influence appears to be waning.

Last month, the country's youngest PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed from office after a court found her guilty of an ethics violation involving a politically sensitive phone call. Pheu Thai, the party long associated with the Shinawatra family, lost power after Parliament confirmed a rival party’s candidate as prime minister.

This series of events is seen by many as a significant setback for Thaksin and could mark the beginning of the end of his two-decade dominance over Thai politics.