Trump, Take Note: 3 US Agencies Express Confidence in India's Growth

Despite tensions with the US over tariffs and increased visa fees, major American financial institutions continue to show strong confidence in India’s economic growth. Over the past two days, three leading US agencies—Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, and S&P Global Ratings—have acknowledged India’s growth potential.

S&P Maintains India’s GDP Forecast

• GDP Forecast (2025-26): 6.5%

• Reason: Strong domestic demand supported by a favourable monsoon

• Quarterly Growth: 7.8% in Q1 (June quarter)

• Inflation Forecast: 3.2%

• Repo Rate Expectation: S&P expects a 0.25% cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this fiscal year

Government Investment and Domestic Demand

• S&P cites strong domestic demand, aided by:

  • Good monsoon

  • Income tax and GST reductions

  • Increased government investment

• Food inflation is expected to drop significantly, supporting low overall inflation and enabling further monetary easing.

India vs External Pressures

• S&P’s report, Asia-Pacific Q4 2025: Growth Undermined by External Pressures, highlights that:

  • US tariffs and slower global growth are external challenges

  • India has been affected more than anticipated but is expected to overcome these hurdles

  • Domestic demand in India remains resilient, helping offset global pressures

Despite external headwinds, India’s growth story continues to impress global financial agencies, reinforcing its position as a strong emerging economy.